TODAY’S RATES & HOUSING NEWS
It’s been quite the up and down week for mortgage rates.
See Mortgage Backed Security chart below with an expertly crafted fuchsia circle to illustrate the rise and falls.
Interest rates have been rising after Fitch Credit Rating downgraded the U.S. credit rating.
Average interest rates started moving in the 7.25% range and then we finally got some relief from the BLS Jobs Report.
I’ve been critical of the BLS Jobs Report data and some of the massive gains in jobs didn’t appear to be accurate based on what I’m seeing in the economy. Also, many of the jobs were part time or temporary jobs.
On Friday, the July BLS Jobs Report came out and FINALLY we saw a job creation number below estimates.
The estimates were for 200k job creation.
The numbers came back at 187,000 jobs created in July 2023, and May and June were revised lower by 49,000 jobs.
So why do we care about job creation when it comes to mortgage rates?
Here is why:
The FED is looking at economic numbers to help guide the FED’s fiscal policy.
The FED has raised interest rates at one of the fastest paces of all time to lower inflation.
If job creation goes down, it shows that some of the policies to slow the economy are working thus decreasing the possibility of another rate increase.
Also, when jobs increase it means employers are hiring which typically correlates to increased sales thus more staff needed.
When the companies are doing well, investors spend more money investing in the stock market which typically raises interest rates.
When the economy is not doing as well, investors spend more money in the safety of the bond market which typically lowers interest rates.
Here is an article from Mortgage News Daily going over Jobs Report and it’s impact: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08042023
The big economic report this week is the CPI Inflation report coming on Thursday, August 10th.
Expectations are for year-over-year inflation to rise from 3% to 3.3%.
Why would inflation rise if the FED is doing all these things to lower it?
The yearly inflation number is taken by adding up 12 months of monthly inflation numbers together.
In July 2022, there was a negative reading of inflation and in July 2023 there is expected to be a small positive reading.
Because the positive number (1 of 12) will replace the negative number, year-over-year inflation will likely go up.
Mortgage rates are down .14% since last Tuesday.
Below are the average mortgage interest rates across the country according to Mortgage News Daily.
Below is Green Home Loans rate sheet today.
We can go lower than these rates depending on credit and how you want to structure costs.
HOMEOWNER EQUITY NEAR RECORD HIGHS
According to Black Knight, total U.S. Homeowner equity topped 16 Trillion in June, while Tappable equity (available to use – defined at 80% LTV or below)
came in at 10.5 Trillion.
Let’s put that into perspective from an individual household standpoint.
The average home in America has equity of: $249,000
The average home has tappable equity of: $199,000
Here is Black Knight’s full Mortgage Monitor Report:
And here is a CNBC article on home equity in America.
If you have a lot of equity in your home and want to use it for:
- Paying off higher interest rate debt
- Home Improvements
- Creating a Security Fund
- Other investments
Please give me a call.
We have a lot of consumers getting cash through cash-out refinances or HELOCS.
I’d be happy to show you the numbers to see if it makes sense.
HOUSING MARKET FORECAST