Will the FED Raise Rates This Week?

TODAY’S RATES & HOUSING NEWS

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Mortgage interest rates have stayed neutral to slightly higher over the past 7 days as we head into FED week.

Average interest rates across the country rose .09% on a 30 Year Conventional Loan to 6.99%.

Below are average interest rates in the U.S. from Mortgage News Daily.

Below is Green Home Loans rate sheet today.

We can go lower than these rates depending on how you want to structure costs.

Everyone is expecting the FED to raise the Federal Funds rate on Wednesday.

What is more important is the information the FED gives on a possible 2^nd rise in September.

How the FED telegraphs their next move will likely move interest rates market more than the 25 bps rise that most experts are predicting.

Here is an article taken from a webinar with Fidelity and former FED Chief Ben Bernanke on his expectations of future FED moves.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230720553/bernanke-says-it-is-clear-fed-will-hike-interest-rates-next-week-but-a-september-move-is-up-for-grabs

REAL ESTATE VOTED BEST INVESTMENT

Why does America love investing in real estate so much?

Ask this question and you will hear a variety of responses:

Appreciation
Cash Flow
Tax Advantages
Leverage

Leverage is the key for most real estate owners and investors.

If you buy $100,000 of stock – you need $100,000 to buy it, thus this $100,000 can not be used

for other investements during that time.

If the stock goes up 5% per year over 5 years, the stock would be worth $127,628 after 5 years.

The investor’s cash on cash return would be 27.6% over a 5-year period.

Investment of $100,000 made the investor $27,628.

Most homeowners use financing / leverage to buy real estate.

If you buy a $100,000 rental property, you may finance $80,000 – thus you are only using $20,000 of cash + costs and prepaids on a $100,000 investment.

For this example, let’s say the investor contributed $25,000.

The property goes up 5% per year and the property is worth $127,628 after 5 years – the same number as the stock.

The investor is getting the full appreciation on a $100,000 investment even though they have only provided $25,000 in cash.

They contributed $25,000, and made $27,628 – or 111% on their money over a 5-year period.

What if this same investor bought 4 investment properties with $25,000 each = $100,000 the same cash needed to buy stock in the above example.

The investor would have invested $100,000 and made $110,512 – 4 times higher than the stock.

This is the power of using leverage to invest in real estate which can lead to scaling your wealth faster.

New Home Listings Down 31%

TODAY’S RATES & HOUSING NEWS

Mortgage rates have settled down after a huge swing upward on the week of 7/3 and a huge swing downward on the week of 7/10.

You can see that swing in the Mortgage Backed Security graph below and to the right.

The big news coming is the FED meeting and news conference next Tuesday and Wednesday.

My bet is they will still raise the Federal Funds Rate another 25 bps.

Here is a Forbes article detailing the data and upcoming decision:

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-meeting-preview/

Below is Green Home Loans rate sheet today.

We can go lower than these rates depending on how you want to structure costs.

Along with Mortgage News Daily average rate across the country.

REDFIN MARKET REPORT

The total number of homes for sale dropped 15% year over year, and the number of new listings dropped 30.6%, a record number only surpassed in April 2020 at the start of the COVID pandemic.

National months of supply is also at a record low of 1.8 months – only exceeded during the pandemic.

46.8% OF HOME OFFERS WRITTEN BY A REDFIN AGENT HAD MULTIPLE OFFERS

If you are bidding over asking price, we have a tool that will show your break-even point,

and wealth creation after likely appreciation. See below for example.

Click below for full REDFIN June 2022 Market Update:

Homes Are Selling for Near-Record Highs as Supply Falls to New Low, Demand Picks Up

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-june-2023/

Home Prices Hit All Time Highs

TODAY’S RATES & HOUSING NEWS

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Interest rates moved up quickly last week, but we have some positive momentum this week.

On the week of the 4^th of July, the Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) market went down -119 bps.

As of this writing, the MBS market is up +60 bps so far this week which has helped erase some of the rise in rates.

So why have rates moved up most of June and now going into July?

The simple answer is we keep getting positive reports about the economy despite the FED doing all that they can to slow down the economy.

Raising overnight bank rates (The Federal Funds Rate) causes banks to raise the interest rates they offer consumers.

Higher rates typically equate to less demand for buying goods and services.

Less demand to buy goods and services helps lower inflation.

I personally believe that much of the economic momentum in the jobs market is being fueled by part-time jobs.

I also believe that a lot of the economic spending is being fueled by credit cards and home equity lines of credit.

With US credit card debt at an all-time high, I believe that consumers that have lost their job or are making less money are relying on credit cards

and Home Equity lines of credit to maintain their normal spending habits.

The BLS Jobs report was released on Friday and finally we received a jobs report lower than expectations.

The 209,000 jobs created were less than the 240,000 expectation and BLS did negative revisions of -110,000 jobs for April and May.

The CPI Inflation report comes out Wednesday and this is one to pay attention to.

The FED has made it very clear that their goal is 2% inflation. We expect inflation to drop in the 3% range – hopefully in the low 3%’s.

We also expect the FED to raise overnight banking rates at their meeting later this month.

Below is Green Home Loans rate sheet today.

Along with Mortgage News Daily average rate across the country.

IMPACT OF CHANGING MORTGAGE RATES

HOME PRICES HIT NEW PEAKS

Black Knight’s Home Price index hit an all-time high – rising .7% from April to May.

The 2023 housing momentum has erased the losses of the second half of 2022.

According to Black Knight, “Twenty-seven of the 50 largest U.S. markets have returned to their previous price peaks or set new ones this spring. See article here: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07102023-black-knight-mortgage-monitor