Mortgage interest rates are very close to the same levels as last week.
With all the volatile events in June, interest rate volatility has actually been quite boring.
See Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) chart below and how the trading has been in a fixed range on the right, compared to much more volatility in May and April.
Below is Green Home Loans rate sheet today.
Along with Mortgage News Daily average rate across the country.
HOUSING INVENTORY REMAINS LOW
New housing inventory (homes coming on the market) is down 22.7% from 1 year ago.
Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer right now so active listings are higher, but home listings coming on the market are substantially lower. Although demand for buying a home is down, low supply has helped stabilize home prices.
After 2 huge reports – The CPI Inflation Report and the FED statement, interest rates have settled almost exactly where they were a week ago.
This is surprising to me as I thought we would get more rate improvement with inflation dropping to 4%.
Below are current average interest rates across the country per Mortgage News Daily:
And below is Green Home Loans Rate Sheet.
THE COST OF WAITING TO BUY A HOME
After all the doom and gloom about the housing market, the housing market appreciated 5-6% in 2022 and is on track for the same in 2023.
MBS Highway has a great tool called the Cost of Waiting.
Many consumers are waiting for interest rates to go down before they buy a home.
With the Cost of Waiting tool, we can compare buying now vs. buying in the future with a lower rate.
See example below of
Purchasing a home with a 6.5% rate with today’s housing value
Waiting 6 months and getting a 5.5% rate with a housing value that is 2.06% higher (4.12% conservative yearly appreciation)
Waiting 12 months and getting a 5.5% rate with housing value that is 2.95% higher (2.95% conservative yearly appreciation)
By waiting 6 months, the buyer is losing $20,580 in home appreciation.
After factoring in amortization, lower payments, and the cost to refinance down to a 5.5% – the consumer is losing $19,452 by waiting 6 months.
And losing $30,879 by waiting 12 months.
As long as homes continue to appreciate which they are expected to do, it will almost always make more financial sense to buy now and refi later if rates drop.
Here is the recording of Keeping Current Matter’s June Monthly Market Report:
If you would like full access to video and slides – please email Kalee Taylor @ kalee@mygreenhomeloans.com
Here are my favorite slides:
Below is KCM’s Summer buyer and seller guides.
Click link to view full guide and if you are an agent, please contact Kalee Taylor if you would like us to customize a guide with your picture and contact information:
Mortgage rates had a great week until the jobs numbers starting to come in on Thursday culminating with the BLS Jobs Report on Friday.
There were 339,000 jobs created in May 2023, compared to an estimated 190,000 jobs.
The jobs number blew the estimates out of the water.
On top of that, April was revised higher 41,000 jobs and March was revised higher 52,000 jobs.
Unfortunately, these reports are what the FED uses to justify their monetary policy.
If job creation is high, they can continue to raise the Federal Funds Rate.
The good news is that rates improved so much before Thursday and Friday that the average rate across the country is close to .25% lower – from 7.14% to 6.9%.
Below are average rates across the country today.
Coming next week, we have the Fed meeting and announcement. Many are still predicting a skip in raising the Federal Funds rate even with the high job numbers. We also have the CPI Inflation report next week. It will likely be a volatile week for rates.
ARIZONA LIMITING CONSTRUCTION DUE TO WATER SHORTAGE
Arizona announced last week that it’s limiting construction on homes that require ground water.
Developers believe they could still build with these limitations.
