TODAY’S INTEREST RATES

Interest rates continued to move higher this week.

Average 30 year fixed conventional rates across the country are moving towards the high 6%’s depending on credit and cost considerations.   

Some FED members are in favor of a 50 bps Federal Funds Rate hike at their next meeting in March, even after the FED telegraphed a likely 25 bps hike moving forward.

It’s a very volatile time for interest rates with inflation numbers not coming in as low as expected and a better jobs report than expected.

MBS highway expects slower jobs growth on the March 10^th report and better inflation numbers on the March CPI report.

This will hopefully bring back some of the recent interest rate improvements the market has gotten used to.

VA FUNDING FEE DROPS

The VA Funding Fee is being reduced for closings after 4/7/2023.

VA Funding Fees for less than 5% down payment are going down from 2.3% to 2.15%.

Subsequent use for less than 5% down payment is going down from 3.6% to 3.3%.  

This is great news for Veterans!

FINANCIAL ADVISOR CLASS

Here is the recording of Matt Lipscomb’s class if you missed it.

https://fairwaymc.zoom.us/rec/share/5uaq7xDtVFwm0j1qQCsy6DcDCXLAREziqT3P24QSzUyNX3_xegWyrGNkmEm8E4lt.UoaJG7PknJddCOq_

TODAY’S INTEREST RATES

Interest rates continued to move higher this week. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation decreased .1% to 6.4%

The Core CPI Rate which takes out food and energy prices went down .1% to 5.6%

Although inflation went down, both numbers were higher than originally expected.

This is likely a component of why rate pricing has gone up over the past week as traders

took a defensive position if the CPI didn’t mean original expectations.

This is a really good article by Mortgage News Daily detailing the current interest rate market: 

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-02102023

I still expect rates to go down long term but there will be some bumpiness to the ride.

1/0 and 2/1 buy downs are great options for this rate environment because you are essentially

having the seller prepay for a lower rate and if you refinance/sell before the temporary buydown period is up, you get all funds back you didn’t use.

Call me if you have any questions about how temporary buydowns work.

Have a Happy Valentine’s Day!

FINANCIAL ADVISOR CLASS

I’m really excited for this class taught by Top Financial Advisor Matt Lipscomb.

Please join us tomorrow via zoom at 9 am Arizona Time. 

REGISTER BELOW:

https://bit.ly/3GCf0yn

RATE LOCKS RISE IN JANUARY

Below are January Mortgage Origination stats from Black Knight,

with corresponding article:  https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-january-2023-originations-market-monitor/

• Rate lock volumes rose 32% in January driven by declining rates and seasonal tailwinds, snapping a 9-month streak of declines
• Purchase (+32%) as well as both rate/term (+37%), and cash-out (+25%) refinance volumes increased proportionally, with refinance locks making up 15% of the month’s overall activity
• Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices from Black Knight showed 30-year rates dropping 36 basis points to 6.16%, continuing a downward trend that began in November 2022
• Despite the improvement, rate and affordability pressures continue to challenge purchase lending, with the dollar volume of such locks down 44% year over year and 14% below January 2020 levels
• Purchase lock counts – which exclude the impact of home price changes – were down 41% year over year
• Nonconforming loans – including jumbos and expanded guidelines – fell as a percentage of total volumes to just under 10%; conforming (58.5%), FHA (18.5%) and VA (12.4%) all picked up share
• The average loan amount rose from $336K to $340K, while the average purchase price climbed from $419K to $421K
• Credit scores fell 4 points among cash-out refis – now down 36 points over the past 12 months – and 9 points for rate/terms, but remained relatively unchanged (+1 point) for purchase transactions
• The ARM share of lending dropped further in January to just above 8% of total locks, as lower rates pushed borrowers back toward fixed-rate offerings

MONTHLY MARKET REPORT

Keeping Current Matter’s excellent monthly market report is now available.

Here is the audio and some of my favorite slides below:  https://files.mykcm.com/mmr/en/2023/02/mykcm/KCM-02-23.mp3

**

**

TODAY’S INTEREST RATES

Last week, The FED raised the Federal Funds Rate 25 bps as expected.

This didn’t have any major movement on interest rates as these moves are telegraphed well before they happen.

The bigger news over the past week was the US Jobs Report which showed 517,000 jobs created.

The job creation number was well above expectations.

Strong economic data is typically better for the stock market and worse for interest rates.

This pushed interest rates to their highest levels in a month.

Below are average mortgage interest rates across the country.

Per MBS Highway, most of the job creation was an illusion with seasonal adjustments and population controls.

With many companies announcing large layoffs, I tend to agree with them. 

The FED’s next meeting is 3/22. 

Below is a summary of the FED’s statement last week.

HOUSING MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF THAWING

Per the Wall Street Journal – the Housing Market is showing signs of thawing.

The article is behind a pay wall but it’s good to see national publications reporting what we are seeing.

Increased buyer demand while listings remain low.

Mortgage rates are a bit higher today, but are still close to 1% lower than they were a few months ago.

Per Keeping Current Matters, they see house buyer demand highly dependent on interest rates.

With current interest rates in the 6-6.5% range – they see good buyer demand and stronger demand coming when/if rates go into the 5%s.

The lack of inventory and increased demand is starting to show in housing price stability. 

New listings continue to lag behind pre-pandemic years. 

The law of supply and demand has helped home prices stabilize sooner than many expected.   

Supply remains low and demand is picking up.