INTEREST RATES IMPROVE – UNCERTAINTY LOOMS WITH HURRICANE SANDY, THE ELECTION AND THE FISCAL CLIFF

INTEREST RATES IMPROVE – UNCERTAINTY LOOMS WITH HURRICANE SANDY, THE ELECTION AND THE FISCAL CLIFF:

October 31st, 2012

Happy Halloween!!

Interest rates improved slightly last week with the MBS market closing up (+ 9 bps).  Mortgage rate pricing was higher for most of the week – but a rally on Friday ended the week with the MBS market in positive territory. 

Markets have been closed the majority of this week due to Hurricane Sandy.  So far this week, the MBS market is trading up (+16 bps). 

MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK:

Above is a mortgage rate graph taken from bankrate.com which surveys the average mortgage rates funded every week.  Current rates are quite a bit lower than they were in August – but not as low as the end of September / early October.

Most experts agree that the lowest mortgage rates are past us.  I expect rates to stay in their current range through the end of the year – with some swings up and down in the process.

Even though I don’t expect rates to change much through 2012, there are a lot of events coming up that could cause movement.

CONFLICTING ECONOMIC DATA:

Rates typically go up when the economy improves.  Right now we are seeing a lot of conflicting economic data.

We have stronger retail sales reports, increasing construction and more applications for building permits.  But we are also seeing many large corporations reporting lower than expected earnings numbers. 

Hurricane Sandy will also likely slow economic growth in many parts of the country, which could cause investors to pull money from the stock market and into the bond market.

THE ELECTION:

Many consumers think that the Presidential election has a huge effect on the mortgage rate market.  I don’t really think it does nor will this time.

Regardless of who wins – the US economy doesn’t change overnight.  The bigger impact will be when Barrack Obama or Mitt Romney enact new economic policies that affect business profitability and growth.

THE FISCAL CLIFF:

I think this issue is probably the one event that can change interest rates the most. 

The US Treasury is set to hit their debt ceiling near the end of 2012 – and a deal needs to be completed for the US Treasury to be able to borrow money to meet their obligations.

If a deal is not completed – the government may have to stop providing Medicare benefits, Social Security benefits, military salaries, tax refunds, etc.

I think this is too much of a political issue for some type of deal to not get done, but the details of the deal and how it affects future government borrowing could have a big effect on the economic market. 

LOCK RECOMMENDATION:

I still recommend locking mortgage pricing.  There is more risk in rates going up than the benefit of them going down.

Rates are still very close to all time lows and experts don’t think that rates will hit that level again.  So there is not much room for rates to go down, and much more room for them to go up.

If a rate is beneficial, lock it.    

MY BEST VALUE OF THE WEEK:

30 Year Fixed at 3.625% with $0 costs

30 Year Fixed High Balance Loan at 3.625% with $0 costs

TODAY’S RATES:

30 year fixed:   3.25% paying .99 points,     3.5% paying 0 points,     3.625% – $0 costs

20 year fixed:   3.25% paying .66 points,     3.375% paying 0 points,     3.625%  – $0 costs

15 year fixed:    2.625% paying .82 points,     2.875% paying 0 points,     3.125% – $0 costs

5/1 ARM:   2.25% paying .9 points,     2.625% paying 0 points

7/1 ARM:   2.5% paying .54 points,     2.75% paying 0 points,     3.25%- $0 costs

30 year fixed High Balance Loan:   3.5% paying .16 points;     3.625% – $0 costs

30 year fixed FHA:   3.25% – $0 costs

15 year fixed FHA:   2.75% – $0 costs

30 year fixed VA:  3.25% – $0 costs

Today’s Mortgage Interest Rates.  Current Mortgage Interest Rates and APRs for refinancing and purchasing in Arizona, California, and Colorado.  Arizona Home Loans, California Home Loans, Colorado Home Loans.  Mortgage Rate Sheets for fixed mortgages, ARM mortgages, Variable Mortgages, Interest Only Mortgages, HARP mortgages, HARP 2.0 mortgages, DU Refi Plus Mortgages, Freddie Mac Open Access Mortgages, Fannie Mae Home Path Mortgage, Freddie Mac Foreclosure Relief Mortgage, VA mortgages, VA Interest Rate Reduction Loans, FHA mortgages, FHA streamline mortgages, Conforming mortgages, Conventional Mortgages, 100%  Financing Mortgage, High Balance Mortgages, Fannie Mae mortgages, Freddie Mac Mortgages, No appraisal refinances, 0 point mortgages, 0 closing cost mortgages, paying a point mortgages, Refinance mortgages, purchase mortgages, and Jumbo Mortgages.

INTEREST RATES IMPROVE – UNCERTAINTY LOOMS WITH HURRICANE SANDY, THE ELECTION AND THE FISCAL CLIFF:

Advertisements
%d bloggers like this: