INTEREST RATES IMPROVE – UNCERTAINTY LOOMS WITH HURRICANE SANDY, THE ELECTION AND THE FISCAL CLIFF

INTEREST RATES IMPROVE – UNCERTAINTY LOOMS WITH HURRICANE SANDY, THE ELECTION AND THE FISCAL CLIFF:

October 31st, 2012

Happy Halloween!!

Interest rates improved slightly last week with the MBS market closing up (+ 9 bps).  Mortgage rate pricing was higher for most of the week – but a rally on Friday ended the week with the MBS market in positive territory. 

Markets have been closed the majority of this week due to Hurricane Sandy.  So far this week, the MBS market is trading up (+16 bps). 

MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK:

Above is a mortgage rate graph taken from bankrate.com which surveys the average mortgage rates funded every week.  Current rates are quite a bit lower than they were in August – but not as low as the end of September / early October.

Most experts agree that the lowest mortgage rates are past us.  I expect rates to stay in their current range through the end of the year – with some swings up and down in the process.

Even though I don’t expect rates to change much through 2012, there are a lot of events coming up that could cause movement.

CONFLICTING ECONOMIC DATA:

Rates typically go up when the economy improves.  Right now we are seeing a lot of conflicting economic data.

We have stronger retail sales reports, increasing construction and more applications for building permits.  But we are also seeing many large corporations reporting lower than expected earnings numbers. 

Hurricane Sandy will also likely slow economic growth in many parts of the country, which could cause investors to pull money from the stock market and into the bond market.

THE ELECTION:

Many consumers think that the Presidential election has a huge effect on the mortgage rate market.  I don’t really think it does nor will this time.

Regardless of who wins – the US economy doesn’t change overnight.  The bigger impact will be when Barrack Obama or Mitt Romney enact new economic policies that affect business profitability and growth.

THE FISCAL CLIFF:

I think this issue is probably the one event that can change interest rates the most. 

The US Treasury is set to hit their debt ceiling near the end of 2012 – and a deal needs to be completed for the US Treasury to be able to borrow money to meet their obligations.

If a deal is not completed – the government may have to stop providing Medicare benefits, Social Security benefits, military salaries, tax refunds, etc.

I think this is too much of a political issue for some type of deal to not get done, but the details of the deal and how it affects future government borrowing could have a big effect on the economic market. 

LOCK RECOMMENDATION:

I still recommend locking mortgage pricing.  There is more risk in rates going up than the benefit of them going down.

Rates are still very close to all time lows and experts don’t think that rates will hit that level again.  So there is not much room for rates to go down, and much more room for them to go up.

If a rate is beneficial, lock it.    

MY BEST VALUE OF THE WEEK:

30 Year Fixed at 3.625% with $0 costs

30 Year Fixed High Balance Loan at 3.625% with $0 costs

TODAY’S RATES:

30 year fixed:   3.25% paying .99 points,     3.5% paying 0 points,     3.625% – $0 costs

20 year fixed:   3.25% paying .66 points,     3.375% paying 0 points,     3.625%  – $0 costs

15 year fixed:    2.625% paying .82 points,     2.875% paying 0 points,     3.125% – $0 costs

5/1 ARM:   2.25% paying .9 points,     2.625% paying 0 points

7/1 ARM:   2.5% paying .54 points,     2.75% paying 0 points,     3.25%- $0 costs

30 year fixed High Balance Loan:   3.5% paying .16 points;     3.625% – $0 costs

30 year fixed FHA:   3.25% – $0 costs

15 year fixed FHA:   2.75% – $0 costs

30 year fixed VA:  3.25% – $0 costs

Today’s Mortgage Interest Rates.  Current Mortgage Interest Rates and APRs for refinancing and purchasing in Arizona, California, and Colorado.  Arizona Home Loans, California Home Loans, Colorado Home Loans.  Mortgage Rate Sheets for fixed mortgages, ARM mortgages, Variable Mortgages, Interest Only Mortgages, HARP mortgages, HARP 2.0 mortgages, DU Refi Plus Mortgages, Freddie Mac Open Access Mortgages, Fannie Mae Home Path Mortgage, Freddie Mac Foreclosure Relief Mortgage, VA mortgages, VA Interest Rate Reduction Loans, FHA mortgages, FHA streamline mortgages, Conforming mortgages, Conventional Mortgages, 100%  Financing Mortgage, High Balance Mortgages, Fannie Mae mortgages, Freddie Mac Mortgages, No appraisal refinances, 0 point mortgages, 0 closing cost mortgages, paying a point mortgages, Refinance mortgages, purchase mortgages, and Jumbo Mortgages.

INTEREST RATES IMPROVE – UNCERTAINTY LOOMS WITH HURRICANE SANDY, THE ELECTION AND THE FISCAL CLIFF:

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INTEREST RATES RISE – WHERE WILL MORTGAGE RATES GO FROM HERE?

INTEREST RATES RISE – WHERE WILL MORTGAGE RATES GO FROM HERE?

October 22nd, 2012

Last week was a pretty tough week for interest rates. Mortgage pricing went up Monday through Thursday, but a rally on Friday pulled interest rates back down a bit.

The Mortgage Backed Security market closed last week trading (-64 bps). On Monday, the market is currently trading down (– 8 bps).

WHERE WILL MORTGAGE RATES GO FROM HERE?

Most agree that rates will not rise substantially with the weakening MBS market. Even though rates have trended up for the majority of two weeks, rates are still very low.

Mortgage rates will likely stay in the range they are now. I don’t think rates will go lower than the rate pricing we saw a couple of weeks ago, but I also don’t see them going substantially up from where they are now.

Confidence in the economy is growing which will typically cause a rise in rates. But the FED introducing QE3 will help them remain low for the rest of 2012.

THIS WEEK:

This week starts with the Presidential Debate on Monday. The Treasury will begin a 99 billion note auction on Tuesday. The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting on Tuesday with a press release on Wednesday. September results from new homes sales are released on Wednesday.

Barring any unforeseen events – I am hoping that rates will improve a little bit this week, but I don’t see anything too drastic happening one way or the other.

My lock recommendation is to lock on any rate improvement this week. 

My Best Value of the week:

15 Year Fixed at 2.99% paying $0 costs

 

Below are rates available today paying a point or less:

30 year fixed: 3.375% paying .70 points,     3.5% paying 0 points,     3.625% – $0 costs
20 year fixed: 3.25% paying .88 points,     3.5% paying 0 points,     3.625% – $0 costs
15 year fixed: 2.625% paying .82 points,     2.875% paying 0 points,      2.99% – $0 costs
5/1 ARM: 2.25% paying .85 points,     2.625% paying 0 points
7/1 ARM: 2.5% paying .59 points,     2.75% paying 0 points
30 year fixed High Balance Loan: 3.5% paying .43 points;     3.625% paying 0 points,     3.75% – $0 costs
30 year fixed FHA: 3.25% – $0 costs
15 year fixed FHA: 2.75% – $0 costs
30 year fixed VA: 3.25% – $0 costs

Today’s Mortgage Interest Rates. Current Mortgage Interest Rates and APRs for refinancing and purchasing in Arizona, California, and Colorado. Arizona Home Loans, California Home Loans, Colorado Home Loans. Mortgage Rate Sheets for fixed mortgages, ARM mortgages, Variable Mortgages, Interest Only Mortgages, HARP mortgages, HARP 2.0 mortgages, DU Refi Plus Mortgages, Freddie Mac Open Access Mortgages, Fannie Mae Home Path Mortgage, Freddie Mac Foreclosure Relief Mortgage, VA mortgages, VA Interest Rate Reduction Loans, FHA mortgages, FHA streamline mortgages, Conforming mortgages, Conventional Mortgages, 100% Financing Mortgage, High Balance Mortgages, Fannie Mae mortgages, Freddie Mac Mortgages, No appraisal refinances, 0 point mortgages, 0 closing cost mortgages, paying a point mortgages, Refinance mortgages, purchase mortgages, and Jumbo Mortgages.

INTEREST RATES RISE   –    WHERE WILL MORTGAGE RATES GO FROM HERE?

MORTGAGE RATES IMPROVE – 30 YEAR FIXED TO 3.25%

MORTGAGE RATES IMPROVE – 30 YEAR FIXED TO 3.25%

October 15th, 2012

The MBS market closed last week trading (+ 12 bps).

So far on Monday – the MBS market is trading down (-12 bps).   

Rates went up for 5 straight days and then we were able to recover with some positive MBS trading days.  There shouldn’t be any change in rate pricing from last week, but we saw a pretty good improvement in both rates and pricing this week.  Some lenders react differently to the market than others.

To start off this week, the market received earning results from retail and auto companies that exceeded forecasts.  This has caused the stock market to trade higher and rate pricing to be a bit higher. 

The big events this week include the Presidential Debate on Tuesday.  The market always seems to react to the debates the next day.  Also, later in the week the European Union is holding a summit.  Although Europe is still nowhere near a resolution to their debt problems, there are positive signs showing that progress is being made.

I recommend locking at this point.  There will be a lot of uncertainty with the upcoming election.  Rates are very close to all time lows.  Below are some lock perspectives from different originators for Mortgage News Daily.  I agree with Tim Elkins in that if you can refinance with $0 costs and lower your rate – it is worth doing.  There are no prepayment penalties, so you can refinance again if they go lower.

Loan Originator Perspectives from http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com.

“To be honest, my personal opinion says rates to go higher. Maybe a “late year” stock market rally as well as election results. Things “need” to look like all is good in the markets. As a result, I think rates go slightly higher. I doubt we see sub 3.25% rates….but you never know! Regardless, rates are incredibly low. Worst case is you do a “no cost loan” now…and rates fall….and you do it again! Good luck….” –Tim Elkins, CEO, Crossline Capital.

“Rates were better this morning and have just recently (as of 11:25 am PT) gotten worse as mortgage bond (MBS) selloff has gained steam in the last half hour. With this morning’s rate improvements on top of yesterday, we were able to lock some clients who had established target rates and were therefore ready to go. Now, unless we get a sharp reversal into positive territory, we’ll hold on locking anyone else until Monday. This is a good reminder to clients that rates move in real time throughout each MBS trading day. When it’s volatile like this, clients need to have target rates that they can’t or won’t go above, and give lenders standing orders to lock those rates when they become available. ” -Julian Hebron, Branch Manager, Loan Agent, RPM Mortgage

With the below rates, I have added to the rate breakdown for $0 cost loans.  Just to clarify, 0 points does not necessarily mean $0 fees completely.  In the rates below, I clarify the rate I can usually get someone with 0 points and $0 costs.  This does vary by area depending on title fees and transfer taxes the county may charge. 

My vest value of the week:

15 Year Fixed at 2.99% paying $0 costs

Below are rates available today paying a point or less:

30 year fixed:  3.25% paying .44 points,    3.375% paying 0 points,    3.625% – $0 costs

20 year fixed:  :3.25% paying .184 points,    3.375% paying 0 points,    3.5%  – $0 costs

15 year fixed:  2.5% paying .752 points,    2.75% paying 0 points,    2.99% – $0 costs

5/1 ARM:  2.25% paying .79 points,    2.5% paying 0 points

7/1 ARM:  2.375% paying .99 points, 2.75% paying 0 points

30 year fixed High Balance Loan:  3.5% paying .13 points;    3.625% – $0 costs

30 year fixed FHA:  3.25% – $0 costs

15 year fixed FHA:  2.75% – $0 costs

30 year fixed VA3.25% – $0 costs

Today’s Mortgage Interest Rates.  Current Mortgage Interest Rates and APRs for refinancing and purchasing in Arizona, California, and Colorado.  Arizona Home Loans, California Home Loans, Colorado Home Loans.  Mortgage Rate Sheets for fixed mortgages, ARM mortgages, Variable Mortgages, Interest Only Mortgages, HARP mortgages, HARP 2.0 mortgages, DU Refi Plus Mortgages, Freddie Mac Open Access Mortgages, Fannie Mae Home Path Mortgage, Freddie Mac Foreclosure Relief Mortgage, VA mortgages, VA Interest Rate Reduction Loans, FHA mortgages, FHA streamline mortgages, Conforming mortgages, Conventional Mortgages, 100%  Financing Mortgage, High Balance Mortgages, Fannie Mae mortgages, Freddie Mac Mortgages, No appraisal refinances, 0 point mortgages, 0 closing cost mortgages, paying a point mortgages, Refinance mortgages, purchase mortgages, and Jumbo Mortgages.

Mortgage Rates Improve – 30 Year Fixed to 3.25%

MORTGAGE RATES INCH HIGHER – 30 YEAR FIXED TO 3.375%

MORTGAGE RATES INCH HIGHER – 30 YEAR FIXED TO 3.375%

October 8th, 2012

Last week the mortgage backed security market told 2 stories. 

The MBS market closed (+ 50 bps) from Monday to Tuesday.  This continued the trend of rates dropping since the FED announced QE3.  But every positive interest rate streak will eventually end and pull back the other way.

From Wednesday to Friday, the MBS market closed down (– 84 bps), finishing the week (– 34 bps). 

The week was capped off with the September unemployment rate dropping from 8.1% to 7.8% with 114,000 new jobs created.  There was a lot of controversy regarding the validity of the report – but either way the MBS market had a mini sell off and closed the week down. 

Mortgage rates are still very low, but a bit higher than their previous lows.  The bond market is closed Monday due to Columbus Day. 

I don’t expect a ton of rate movement next week, but I do think rates may improve a bit, taking back some of the losses of last week.

Keep in mind most news websites/channels report when rates drop but not so much when they rise.  Rates are always fluctuating until a loan is locked.

My best value of the week:

30 Year Fixed at 3.5% paying 0 points

Below are rates available today paying a point or less:

30 year fixed:  3.375% paying .69 points, 3.5% paying 0 points

20 year fixed:  3.25% paying .79 points, 3.5% paying 0 points

15 year fixed:  2.75% paying .81 points, 3% paying 0 points

5/1 ARM:  2.25% paying .98 points, 2.75% paying 0 points

7/1 ARM  :2.5% paying .77 points, 2.75% paying 0 points

30 year fixed High Balance Loan:  3.5% paying .49 points; 3.625% paying 0 points

30 year fixed FHA:  3.25% paying 0 points

15 year fixed FHA:  2.75% paying 0 points

30 year fixed VA:  3.25% paying 0 points

Today’s Mortgage Interest Rates.  Current Mortgage Interest Rates and APRs for refinancing and purchasing in Arizona, California, and Colorado.  Arizona Home Loans, California Home Loans, Colorado Home Loans.  Mortgage Rate Sheets for fixed mortgages, ARM mortgages, Variable Mortgages, Interest Only Mortgages, HARP mortgages, HARP 2.0 mortgages, DU Refi Plus Mortgages, Freddie Mac Open Access Mortgages, Fannie Mae Home Path Mortgage, Freddie Mac Foreclosure Relief Mortgage, VA mortgages, VA Interest Rate Reduction Loans, FHA mortgages, FHA streamline mortgages, Conforming mortgages, Conventional Mortgages, 100%  Financing Mortgage, High Balance Mortgages, Fannie Mae mortgages, Freddie Mac Mortgages, No appraisal refinances, 0 point mortgages, 0 closing cost mortgages, paying a point mortgages, Refinance mortgages, purchase mortgages, and Jumbo Mortgages.

Mortgage Rates Inch Higher – 30 Year Fixed to 3.375%

OCTOBER 2012 – RATES RISE SLIGHTLY, STILL NEAR RECORD LOWS

OCTOBER 2012 – RATES RISE SLIGHTLY, STILL NEAR RECORD LOWS

October 1st, 2012            

Happy October!!

The MBS market closed last week trading up (+ 37 bps), and is currently trading (+ 25 bps) on Monday morning.

While mortgage rates should have improved last week- they actually increased slightly.  This is a result of most lenders enacting the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac guaranteed fee increase for loans delivered to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac December 1st, 2012 and later.

This week will likely be volatile in the rate markets with Europe still working on plans to save the Euro.  On Friday, the unemployment report comes out.  This will usually push rates one way or the other.  The expectation is that jobs will increase but the unemployment report will stay the same due to potential workers dropping out of the job market.

Now is still a great time to lock in at record low rates.

My best values of the week:

30 Year Fixed at 3.5% paying 0 points

30 Year Fixed High Balance Loan at 3.5% with 0 points

Below are rates available today paying a point or less:

30 year fixed:  3.25% paying .773 point, 3.5% paying 0 points

20 year fixed:  3.25% paying .149 points, 3.375% paying 0 points

15 year fixed:  2.625% paying .74 points, 2.875% paying 0 points

5/1 ARM:  2.125% paying .99 points, 2.5% paying 0 points

7/1 ARM:  2.25% paying .99 points, 2.625% paying 0 points

30 year fixed High Balance Loan:  3.5% paying 0 points

30 year fixed FHA:  3.25% paying 0 points

15 year fixed FHA:  2.75% paying 0 points

30 year fixed VA: 3.25% paying 0 points

Today’s Mortgage Interest Rates.  Current Mortgage Interest Rates and APRs for refinancing and purchasing in Arizona, California, and Colorado.  Arizona Home Loans, California Home Loans, Colorado Home Loans.  Mortgage Rate Sheets for fixed mortgages, ARM mortgages, Variable Mortgages, Interest Only Mortgages, HARP mortgages, HARP 2.0 mortgages, DU Refi Plus Mortgages, Freddie Mac Open Access Mortgages, Fannie Mae Home Path Mortgage, Freddie Mac Foreclosure Relief Mortgage, VA mortgages, VA Interest Rate Reduction Loans, FHA mortgages, FHA streamline mortgages, Conforming mortgages, Conventional Mortgages, 100%  Financing Mortgage, High Balance Mortgages, Fannie Mae mortgages, Freddie Mac Mortgages, No appraisal refinances, 0 point mortgages, 0 closing cost mortgages, paying a point mortgages, Refinance mortgages, purchase mortgages, and Jumbo Mortgages.

OCTOBER 2012 – RATES RISE SLIGHTLY, STILL NEAR RECORD LOWS

 

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